Australia's future hangs in the balance, and our supercomputers are struggling to keep up. This isn't just a tech issue; it's a critical threat to our ability to navigate climate change. The decisions we make today about energy, food, and water will shape our tomorrow, and those decisions hinge on accurate climate data. But here's where it gets complicated…
To understand the challenges ahead, we rely on climate models. These complex computer simulations, powered by the fundamental laws of physics, mimic Earth's systems – from the sun's radiation to the ocean currents. They help us predict how wind, water, and sunlight will behave in the future, guiding crucial decisions like where to build renewable energy infrastructure or how to manage our water resources.
Running these models requires immense computing power, which is why supercomputers are essential. These machines can perform a staggering number of calculations in a short time. Australia has two main national supercomputers for research: Gadi and Setonix. Gadi, located at the Australian National University, is the primary workhorse for climate research, packed with thousands of processing units. To put it in perspective, your average Macbook Pro has a fraction of the processing power of Gadi. The more powerful the supercomputer, the more detailed and reliable the climate models become. It's like upgrading from a grainy black-and-white TV to a crystal-clear, high-definition one.
Globally, supercomputing is advancing rapidly. The most advanced climate models today use grids of just a few kilometers, offering incredibly detailed simulations. Leading the charge are supercomputers like LUMI in Europe and Frontier in the US. These machines are not just for scientists; they provide essential climate information to all sectors of society, helping to protect lives and property. The EU has recently developed a “Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin”, a major step forward in understanding and responding to climate change.
So, how does Australia stack up in this global race?
Unfortunately, not so well. Gadi is currently ranked 179th in the world, a significant drop from its 24th position in 2020. In contrast, the Frontier supercomputer is ranked 2nd, and LUMI is 9th. In May 2025, the Australian government announced funding to upgrade Gadi, but the investment is significantly less than the previous upgrade, which means we risk falling further behind.
This lag puts Australia at a major disadvantage. We can't simply rely on models developed elsewhere. Firstly, most climate models are built in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially overlooking the specific conditions of our region. Secondly, making sound decisions about Australia's future requires us to be self-sufficient in simulating the climate system using scenarios relevant to our region. Recent cuts to climate science in the US highlight the importance of this self-sufficiency.
But here's a thought-provoking question: Could we be doing more? The good news is that we have the software, the ACCESS model, to do it. The bad news is that the current and planned supercomputing infrastructure to run it on is outdated.
An ambitious solution is within reach. Learning from international advancements, we could integrate the power of existing climate modeling with artificial intelligence and machine learning to build a “digital twin” of Australia. This digital twin, centered on weather and climate, could integrate major features of Australia, such as its ecosystems, cities, and energy and transport systems. The cost of such a facility would be substantial, but the cost of making poor decisions based on outdated information could be far greater.
What are your thoughts? Do you think Australia is investing enough in supercomputing for climate research? Do you see any other potential solutions or challenges? Share your opinions in the comments below!
