Imagine if the Earth’s untapped energy could power entire nations—yet we’re barely scratching the surface. That’s exactly what Zanskar believes is happening with geothermal power, and they’re not alone in thinking we’re overlooking a potential goldmine. While the U.S. Department of Energy estimates geothermal could generate 60 gigawatts of electricity by 2050—nearly 10% of the country’s needs—Zanskar’s co-founder and CEO, Carl Hoiland, argues this is a gross understatement. But here’s where it gets controversial: Hoiland claims the DOE’s projections are too conservative, particularly when it comes to conventional geothermal energy, which taps into naturally occurring hotspots beneath the Earth’s surface.
The DOE’s figures primarily focus on enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which rely on fracking techniques to access deep, hot rock formations. Startups like Fervo and Sage Geosystems are leading the charge in this space, and their progress is undeniably exciting. However, conventional geothermal—which has been largely stagnant, producing only 4 gigawatts in the U.S. with minimal growth over the past decade—is being left behind. Hoiland believes this oversight is rooted in outdated assumptions about the availability and accessibility of geothermal resources.
‘They underestimated how many undiscovered systems there are, maybe by an order of magnitude or more,’ Hoiland told TechCrunch. With advancements in drilling technology, he argues, we could extract far more energy from these systems than previously thought. What if conventional geothermal isn’t a gigawatt-scale opportunity, but a terawatt-scale one? That’s the question Zanskar is determined to answer.
To tackle this challenge, Zanskar is leveraging artificial intelligence in ways that are nothing short of revolutionary. The company has already breathed new life into a struggling power plant in New Mexico and discovered two new sites with a combined potential of over 100 megawatts. These successes have attracted significant attention, culminating in a $115 million Series C funding round led by Spring Lane Capital, with participation from a who’s who of sustainable investment firms.
But this is the part most people miss: 95% of geothermal systems don’t announce themselves with obvious surface signs like hot springs or volcanoes. Instead, they’re hidden beneath the Earth, waiting to be discovered. Hoiland explains, ‘We just keep finding them by accident. That is a great application for AI.’ Zanskar’s approach involves feeding supervised machine learning models with data from past discoveries, then sending teams to validate promising sites. Once a site is confirmed, the company uses Bayesian evidential learning (BEL), a cutting-edge AI technique, to develop a plan for extraction. Where data is lacking, Zanskar’s geothermal simulator fills in the gaps.
So far, the strategy has been a slam dunk. ‘Three of three,’ said Zanskar’s co-founder and CTO, Joel Edwards, referring to the success rate of their exploration efforts. ‘What does it look like when you try 10?’ The company already has enough sites in the pipeline to support at least a gigawatt of generating capacity, with a focus on the U.S. West, where potential is highest. Hoiland’s goal? To find at least 10 confirmed sites to attract project finance investors, whose lower-cost capital could help Zanskar scale beyond the reach of traditional venture capital.
But here’s the million-dollar question: Can Zanskar’s AI-driven approach truly unlock the full potential of conventional geothermal, or are there challenges we’re not yet accounting for? Hoiland admits they haven’t solved everything, but he’s optimistic. ‘We now know this is the future of exploration,’ he said. ‘This is going to change geothermal in very short order.’
What do you think? Is Zanskar onto something groundbreaking, or are they overestimating the potential of conventional geothermal? Let us know in the comments—this is a conversation worth having.
