A resilient comeback story could be the key to strengthening the St. Louis Cardinals' starting rotation. With the departure of Sonny Gray, the Cardinals' already fragile rotation took a hit, but they acquired some potential replacements. While Richard Fitts might step into the rotation on Opening Day, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the starting five.
Enter Tyler Mahle, a free agent starter who could be a perfect fit for the Cardinals. With a cautious approach to spending this offseason, the team has several promising pitchers in the minors, creating an opportunity for those looking to rebuild their value. Although the rotation has five penciled-in names for next year, changes are expected before the new campaign begins. Currently, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, and Richard Fitts make up the rotation, leaving room for improvement.
Even during a rebuild, the Cardinals must maintain competitiveness while playing for the Best Fans in Baseball. It's unlikely we'll see a complete overhaul like the Chicago White Sox or Colorado Rockies. The Cardinals are expected to stay in the middle of the pack in terms of payroll, even during this transitional period. This opens the door for mid-tier free agents like Tyler Mahle, who has been mentioned as a potential fit by MLB writer Mark Feinsand.
Mahle, 31, has not pitched in more than 20 games since 2022, with just 24 starts over the last three seasons. His four-seam fastball velocity has dropped from a modest 94 mph to just over 92 mph. Despite this, he has proven to be an effective starter, even without a power fastball. Last season with Texas, Mahle had a solid 6-3 record and a 2.34 ERA in 14 starts before the All-Star break. Unfortunately, injuries struck again, sidelining him from June 15 to September 19, allowing him to make only two more starts before becoming a free agent.
Mahle appeared healthy during those final two starts, and with a normal offseason, he could regain some velocity and become a reliable rotation option once more. Health concerns will be paramount for Mahle and any interested teams, so a one-year contract or an incentive-laden deal with options is likely. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Mahle will sign a one-year, $15 million contract, a significant sum for a team that recently paid $20 million for Sonny Gray. Last year, Mahle was in the second year of a $22 million deal, earning $16.5 million this season. While the injury question may impact his earnings, a one-year deal seems the most feasible option for Mahle this offseason.
And this is the part most people miss... Mahle's injury history could be a double-edged sword. It may limit his earnings, but it also presents an opportunity for him to prove his worth and rebuild his value. For the Cardinals, it's a low-risk, high-reward situation. If Mahle can stay healthy and regain his form, he could be a valuable asset to the team. But here's where it gets controversial: Is it worth the risk for a team with a limited budget? What do you think? Should the Cardinals take a chance on Mahle, or is it too much of a gamble? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
